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| 03-05 | Optimal Bidding Strategy in Electricity Markets Under Uncertain Energy and Reserve Prices
This report describes the mathematics of finding optimal bidding strategies in multi-period electricity market auctions of energy and reserve markets, taking full account of generator costs and operating constraints, and exogenous price uncertainty. This report addresses five specific concerns associated with bidding strategies in electricity markets: bidding into multiple markets, the impact of market design rules (particularly the requirement that bids be non-decreasing with increasing amounts offered), the non-convexity of cost curves (often the results of start-up and shut-down costs), the effect of inter-temporal constraints, and the effect of price uncertainty. It uses a nested Dynamic Programming (DP) technique to solve the problem. The bidding strategy methods are illustrated with numerous examples to illustrate that minor difference in the bidding rules can give rise to significantly different optimal bidding strategies and expected profits. The work is intended to help generators improve profits by using optimal strategies and regulators by developing tests that check if a generator behaved like a price-taker or exercised market power. The paper offers insights into market design issues.
This report was funded in part by CERTS.
Date completed: April 11, 2003 | Rajesh Rajaraman and Fernando Alvarado | 4/23/2003 | 532.3k | PDF |
| 03-06 | Integrated Security Analysis
In this project, a comprehensive framework is developed for on-line estimation of security margins, calculated based on current operating practices. The framework proposes families of estimators, each specialized for specific system limits and the appropriate security criteria (i.e., static, dynamic or voltage). The estimators can be combined to provide an overall assessment of system operating conditions. A system of estimators is implemented and tested on a modified New England 39 bus system. Based on the insights from the New England system, a more sophisticated set of estimators are implemented and tested on a 6500 bus model of the Western Area system. The focus of this study is the California-Oregon intertie transfer limits. A number of software tools were developed to help automate the process of evaluating security margins in off-line studies. The results show definitively that it is possible to very accurately estimate security margins for large systems on-line. The main limitation resides in the ability of time-consuming off-line studies to accurately model system dynamics. This is the final report for the Integrated Security Analysis Project (Systems Stem Project S-7).
Initial draft: May 26, 2002
Published: May 8, 2003 | Kevin Tomsovic | 8/28/2003 | 572.0k | PDF |
| 03-26 | Risk-Based Maintenance Allocation and Scheduling for Bulk Transmission System Equipment
Final Report for the Risk-Based Maintenance Allocation and Scheduling for Bulk Transmission System Equipment project (S-14)
In today’s electricity business, it is more important than ever to cost effectively maintain reliability. In this project, we developed a method for efficiently allocating economic resources among maintenance activities for bulk transmission system equipment. Thus, the project addresses needs associated with asset management of transmission equipment. With this method, maintenance scheduling explicitly considers risks associated with such network security problems as overloads, low voltages, cascading overloads, and voltage instability. The method’s objective is to allocate economic resources to minimize risk of wide-area bulk transmission system failures through the optimal choice of a maintenance schedule.
Draft Submitted 9/20/2003. Published 10/30/03. | Jim McCalley, Tim Van Voorhis, A.P. Meliopoulos and Yong Jiang | 8/26/2004 | 1.4M | PDF |
| 03-33 | Interval Analysis for Unknown Dependencies and Genetic Algorithm Emulation of Markets
The project’s objectives were to assess the interactions between the operational and commercial aspects of electricity markets; to identify key requirements in the reform of market structure and rules; and to propose market design modifications that will enable realization of the full the benefits of competition in electricity. Two parallel paths were pursued to achieve the objectives. The first path was to identify a technique suitable for using adaptive agents to value electricity bids. The second path was to emulate market interactions by adaptive agents in multiple markets. This emulation used a genetic-algorithm market simulator and a market simulator based on a genetic programming algorithm, including information from repeated bidding. The new techniques provide considerable insight into market behavior with repeated bidding. The software tool Statool was used for operations on distribution functions and p-boxes.
Market Interactions and Market Power Final Project Report (M-3)
Submitted: Nov. 3, 2003. Published: Feb. 18, 2004
| Gerald B. Sheblé, Project Leader | 5/27/2004 | 2.1M | PDF |
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